SaaS METRIC OF THE WEEK
Headcount can account for 60-80% of early-stage burn (in the non-AI first world), which means most burn starts with hiring. So check out this headcount planning module to track every hire and salary.
The weekly top 10 for B2B tech operators · Every Friday
Headcount can account for 60-80% of early-stage burn (in the non-AI first world), which means most burn starts with hiring. So check out this headcount planning module to track every hire and salary.
New entry for the tech dictionary: Continuous Calibration/Continuous Development (CC/CD). Unlike CI/CD, AI products drift without constant tuning. This framework highlights why calibration is as critical as shipping for long-term performance.
Let's check in on this article in a year - see how it aged. OpenAI and Anthropic revenues alone have gone from 0% of GDP to ~1% on a run-rate basis in 18 months. SF1 expects 4 portfolio companies under 12 months old to cross $100M ARR this year. Valuations for the fastest-growing AI companies are cheaper than mediocre 2021 SaaS.
OKRs are sooooo old school. Ravi Mehta's NCT (Narrative, Commitments, Tasks) model simplifies goal setting. So instead of vague objectives, start with a clear Narrative explaining the "why" behind each goal. Next, set 3-5 measurable commitments for the quarter, with Tasks as actionable steps. The difference is that OKRs can be overly ambitious, but NCTs focus on achievable milestones that closely align with strategic priorities, more Agile in a way, as course corrections are easier (and it increases team accountability).
This is a densely packed summary - but with the top 10 private market companies, five or is it six (SpaceX and x.ai are counted separately) on the top of that list are now AI-first. Top 10 EV/NTM revenue multiples re-rated to 19.3x avg (16.3x median), up from 16.1x in April - jesus-bubbling-christ! M&A deals hit record average size ($260M) but at lower multiples. The 2022 correction looks complete - just not that evenly distributed if you ain't AI.
"My boss brags it will 10X me." - every time I hear this, a GPU dies and goes to silicon heaven. The Walrus editor (Carmine Starnino) spent a week with people being told to use AI to do their jobs. He found a bunch of pressure to adapt without a plan or any rationale. People adopting shit that no one fully understands- anyhow - he found a third state between believer and skeptic: "collective acquiescence" - a surprise entry to our tech dictionaries.
Bessemer has an eComm reframe for us all: brands now need to optimize two front doors. One for AI agents parsing structured signals - clean product data, transparent pricing, accurate inventory. The other is for a human actually walking through. Impulse purchases may be an endangered species, check this quote from the article: "The buyer arrives better informed than the seller." FYI - 15-20% of retailer referral traffic now comes from AI chat. McKinsey projects $1T+ orchestrated US B2C retail by 2030, $3-5T globally.
A fast follow from above on retailer traffic (that makes me cringe a bit) - 460M people/mo now discover products inside AI assistants. Similarweb's read in this report: 46% of ChatGPT users who opened with zero commercial intent developed buying signals before an ad appeared. 83% of ad-triggering queries would never have triggered a Google Shopping ad. Conversations don't replace the intent; they generate it.
You may have noticed Google Search being a little different this week - just got rebuilt for the first time in 25 years- here is why (and more) - at the Google I/O Conference last week, the CEO announced 2030 as the year we get AGI - he also made 24 other announcements in 35 minutes, AI glasses ordering DoorDash (live on stage), background agents inside Search and a universal cart across Search, Gemini, YouTube, Gmail (see #7 and #8 above for more)
OpenAI's enterprise lead over Anthropic collapsed from 41 points to 8 points in 12 months. Claude went 21% to 48% share. Gemini 27% to 40%. OpenAI peaked at 62% in Sep 2025, down to 56% - the first YoY drop. ETR pins the shift on coding assistants. Grok is still a rounding error at 7%
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