Top 10 in Tech - What to know for Week ending March 14, 2025

SaaS METRIC OF THE WEEK

Gross Dollar Retention (GDR) measures the percentage of recurring revenue retained from existing customers over a specific period (excluding any upsells or expansion revenue). It focuses solely on revenue lost due to customer churn and downgrades, providing insight into the stability of your customer base - high GDR indicates strong customer satisfaction and product value. To calculate GDR, subtract churned and downgraded revenue from starting MRR, then divide by starting MRR. For example, if you start with $1M MRR and lose $25K to churn and downgrades, your GDR is 97.5%.

SHAPE UP

This is the annual refresher for your tech dictionaries and reading list. Software product development requires innovative strategies based on today's cadence expectations of continuous integration, micro-services, feature delivery, and scale. The team at Basecamp (I'm an old-school fan) has developed ShapeUp, their publications, and toolbox of techniques designed to eliminate chaos when it comes to designing, prioritizing, and shipping products/features.

GROWTH

Coming off the back of last week's quite popular post on Growth Marketing - is it even marketing in the first place? I like this find, and I've been sitting on it a little while - but share it with your marketing team: The Strategic Growth Calendar Framework is a year-long blueprint that combines "Always On" growth channels with impactful "Marketing Moments." Emphasizing the integration of those steady, foundational channels like SEO and email with high-impact campaigns such as product launches, event, influencer collabs and the likes. Aligning these strategies with seasonal demand over your calendar year optimizes planning and (hopefully) continuous/steady growth throughout the year.

PRIVATE EQUITY

Private equity looks to be bouncing back after a two-plus-year slump. This McKinsey Global Private Markets Report 2025 report shows a 14% increase in global PE deal value, marking it the third-highest year on record. Distributions to LPs have exceeded contributions for the first time since 2015, which definitely signals renewed confidence. Large deals (over $500M) are on the rise, and financing conditions are improving, with new-issue loan values for PE-backed borrowers nearly doubling. But fundraising remains challenging, down 24% year-over-year, urging GPs to innovate in sourcing capital.

SPEND

Tropic's 2025 Software Spend Report is out and is just mashed with all kinds of goodies now that y'all follow Financial best practices and can report on total software spend and manage across different categories, right? The big takeaway is that spending jumped 10% YoY(not including any Fx for non-US businesses). Smarter buyers are consolidating tools. Enterprises still get the best pricing (and SMBs pay about 2x per seat in comparison). Fastest-growing vendors are your stock AI-first tools like OpenAI, Deel, and Notion. FYI - Price hikes are accelerating, so start renewal talks 180 days out and benchmark against this and your peers.

LAW

Always a goodie to repost, from CBInsights is a 67-page report covering the 11 laws driving success in tech. These law-isms cover concepts such as Amazon's 2-pizza rule, the 80/20 principle, and more.

DUE DILIGENCE (pre-seed)

Pre-seed due diligence is all about people, cap tables, and corporate hygiene. Charles Hudson breaks down the red flags: ex-founders still holding equity, missing vesting schedules, messy SAFE structures, and unclear advisor stakes. Investors aren't just betting on ideas—they're betting on clean execution

VENTURE

According to this Substack, specialist VC funds (ones that invest exclusively in a specific industry, technology, or market niche) are 47% more likely to hit top-quartile returns than generalists. In today's market, depth beats breadth. Generalists chase hype and overpay, while specialists spot winners before valuations explode.

AI

All of our favorite (OpenAI, Anthopic, xAI, et al., well at least US Favorite) Foundation AI model startups are burning cash—OpenAI expects $4B revenue in 2024 but a $5B loss. The API model is looking like a commodity, and vertical integration is emerging as the only real moat. The future? AI apps, not just models. Whoever controls distribution wins. Which turns out (based on the Manus launch earlier this week) to probably be geopolitical bullshit.

CASE STUDY

Continuing on from #9 above, AI agents (hopefully) won't replace humans overnight: Accountability, context, and coordination are super necessary to work in IRL business environments. NFX breaks down how AI agents are being onboarded, such as employees, learning company processes, and integrating into workflows. The future of automation starts here.