Top 10 in Tech - What to know for Week ending June 20, 2025

1. SaaS METRIC OF THE WEEK: Is ARR dead? Not quite — but it is evolving. In a world of usage-based pricing and variable billing, Notable argues ARR is no longer a reliable compass. It's being replaced by CARR, NDR, and cohort-based views.


2. BENCHMARKS: Fresh from the 2025 BenchmarkIT Report (interactive version available here), median growth has dipped to 26% (down from 30% last year), while the top quartile remains at 50%. NRR down to 101%. New CAC is up 14%, but expansion ARR is now 40% of new ARR (50%+ for $50M+ companies). ARR per FTE? $300K at scale.


3. AI: Is AI adoption already hitting a wall? Ramp's latest data suggests AI usage may be plateauing across expense categories, especially in SaaS and infra. The AI hype cycle may be cooling, at least in B2B wallets. Jason Lemkim breaks down why this slowdown may be real (and why it may be an illusion).


4. TRENDS: Every year since 2004, Mary Meeker (a top-ranked VC) has been releasing an incredibly in-depth analysis of Internet Trends. She is back this year with another monster report - 336 slides long with, of course, a heavy focus on AI. Highlights: On the infrastructure side, the big six tech providers are spending $212B/year, and Enterprise AI revenue is insane (e.g., Cursor grew from $1M to $300M ARR in 2 years).


5. AI GROWTH: Adding onto number 4 above is this insane headline/takeaway from a16z data: The median enterprise AI startup now hits $2.1M ARR by Month 12! MEDIAN! Holy smokes, AI-native products are ramping faster than SaaS ever did. I need to try and muster up some AI revenue benchmarks.


6. EQUITY: Not all startup equity is equal, so I highly recommend any founder read this three-part deep dive into the equity terms that matter. 'Dilution' is one of the most feared words- so let's benchmark it - what is the average ownership percentage by SaaS Founders at time of IPO? Sammy Abdullah takes a review, and the median level of founders' ownership is 14%, while the average is 23%, with VCs owning about 54% on average. Obviously, there is a significant difference between bootstrapped and non-bootstrapped data in this dataset. As an added bonus, take a read of this article from Heavybit that discusses Cap Table management in relation to growth and also how to manage that Option Pool.


7. M&A: According to Pitchbook, Enterprise SaaS M&A activity held steady in Q1 2025 with 210 deals, matching Q4 2024, but deal value fell nearly 25% QoQ to $29.1B. VC-backed targets stood out, hitting $14.6B in value—50% of the total. Top segments? ERP ($12.9B) and AP (up 108% YoY).


8. EARLY-STAGE: Is early-stage investing busted? Chris Neumann digs into the shift: more founders, fewer quality startups, and inflated expectations. The bar is higher, and investors are wary — with fewer seed deals closing and many angel syndicates pretty much on pause. Tomasz Tunguz also tracks five years of YC trends: batch sizes are down 54%, crypto is out, and AI dominates. The average valuation has doubled, but startups now raise less per dollar of valuation. It's leaner, more competitive, and very AI-heavy.


9. VALUATIONS: How do investors really value startups? There is a bunch in here for your tech dictionaries, as this breakdown covers eight methods from VC math to the Berkus Method and Scorecard Valuation (). Essential reading for any founder or operator raising capital (or negotiating their next round).


10. CASE STUDY: Founders Fund's $50M Fund I (back in 2005) backed 17 startups—7 hit unicorn status. This retrospective dives into their contrarian bets (SpaceX, Palantir - also a Thiel Biz), the PayPal Mafia, early LP skepticism, and why conviction > consensus. Rare transparency on VC returns and bunch of misses too.


POD OF THE WEEK: Stijn Hendrikse has unearthed a bunch of patterns that separate companies achieving explosive growth from those that plateau at $5-10M ARR.